Stable TGE tonight, will the stablecoin public chain narrative market still buy it?
Stable mainnet launches tonight as a Layer 1 blockchain powered by Bitfinex and Tether focused on stablecoin infrastructure. Polymarket data shows that the market is betting that there is an 85% chance that its FDV will exceed $2 billion the day after it goes online.
(Preliminary summary: Chinaâs official stance on stablecoins for the first time, the era of gray fantasy for StableCoin is over)
(Background supplement: Stable public chain pre-deposit rules are changed again! More than 500 million U.S. dollars "rewards are distributed proportionally" angered the community)
Contents of this article
Polymarket data shows that the market is betting that the probability of FDV exceeding 2 billion U.S. dollars the day after its launch is 85%. At 21:00 on December 8, Taiwan time, the Stable mainnet will be officially launched. Stable is a Layer 1 blockchain powered by Bitfinex and Tether that focuses on stablecoin infrastructure. The core of its design is to use USDT as the native gas fee to achieve sub-second settlement and point-to-point transfer without gas fees. As of press time, Bitget, Backpack, and Bybit have announced that they will launch STABLE spot. In addition, Binance, Coinbase and Korean exchanges have not yet announced the listing of STABLE spot.
The total amount is 100 billion, and the token does not charge gas fees
The project team has released a white paper and token economics details before the mainnet goes online. The total supply of its native token STABLE is 100 billion, and the total supply is fixed. Stable network transfers, payments and transactions are all settled in USDT. STABLE does not require gas fees, but is used to coordinate the incentive mechanism between developers and ecosystem participants. The distribution of STABLE tokens is: Genesis Distribution accounts for 10% of the total supply, supporting liquidity, community activation, ecosystem activities and strategic distribution in the early stages of launch. The Genesis Distribution will be fully unlocked when the mainnet is launched.
The ecosystem and community account for 40% of the total supply, allocated to developer funding, liquidity plans, partnerships, community plans, and ecosystem development; the team accounts for 25% of the total supply, allocated to the founding team, engineers, researchers, and contributors; investors and advisors account for 25% of the total supply, allocated to strategic investors and advisors who support network development, infrastructure construction, and promotion.
The team and investor shares have set a one-year cliff period, that is, zero unlocking in the first 12 months, and then a linear release. 8% of the ecological and community fund share will be unlocked from the launch, and the remaining portion will be gradually released through linear vesting to stimulate the growth of developers, partners, and users.
Stable adopts the DPoS (Delegated Proof of Stake) model through its StableBFT consensus protocol. This design supports high-throughput settlement while maintaining the economic security features required of a global payment network. Staking STABLE tokens is a mechanism for validators and delegators to participate in consensus and earn rewards. The main role of token STABLE is governance and staking: holders can pledge tokens to become validators, participate in network security maintenance, and influence protocol upgrades through DAO voting, such as adjusting handling rates or introducing new stablecoin support.
In addition, STABLE can be used for ecological incentives, such as liquidity mining or cross-chain bridging rewards. The project team claims that this separation design can attract institutional funds because the stability of USDT is much higher than that of volatile governance tokens.
Pre-deposit disputes: rat warehouse, KYC lag
Like Plasma, Stable also opened deposits twice before the launch of the mainnet. The first phase of pre-deposits, capped at $825 million, launched in late October but filled up within minutes of the announcement. The community questioned some playersâ behavior. The No. 1 wallet deposited hundreds of millions of dollars in USDT 23 minutes before it opened for deposits.
The project team did not respond directly and launched the second phase of pre-deposit activities on November 6, with a cap of US$500 million.
However, Stable still underestimated the enthusiasm of the market for deposits. When the second phase was opened, a huge amount of traffic poured in, which once caused its website to slow down. Therefore, after Stable updated the rules, users can deposit via the Hourglass front-end or directly on the chain; the deposit function will be open for 24 hours again, with a maximum deposit of $1 million per wallet, and the minimum deposit amount will still be $1,000.
In the end, the total deposits in the second phase were approximately US$1.8 billion, and the number of participating wallets was approximately 26,000.
The review time ranges from a few days to a week, and some users in the community complained about system lags or repeatedly requested supplementary materials.
The probability of 2 billion FDV exceeds 85%
At the end of July this year, Stable announced the completion of a US$28 million seed round of financing, led by Bitfinex and Hack VC, and its market valuation reached nearly US$300 million.
For comparison, Plasmaâs market capitalization is now $330 million and FDV is $1.675 billion.
Some optimists believe that the stablecoin narrative, Bitfinexâs endorsement, and Plasmaâs first rise and then fall may mean that there will still be a certain degree of popularity and room for currency price growth in the near future. But the pessimistic voice is stronger: Gas is non-STABLE payment and has limited utility, especially since the market has entered a bear market cycle, market liquidity has become tight, and its currency price may fall rapidly.
Current Polymarket data shows that the market is betting that the probability of FDV exceeding US$2 billion after its first day of launch is 85%. Based on a conservative calculation of US$2 billion, the STABLE currency price corresponds to US$0.02.
In the perpetual contract market, according to the Bitget market, STABLE/USDT is currently quoted at US$0.032, which means its FDV is expected to rise to 30. Around US$100 million.
Stableâs pre-deposit in the first phase reached US$825 million, and the actual contribution in the second phase was more than US$1.1 billion, but after pro rata distribution, US$500 million was actually pooled. Total advance deposits are US$1.325 billion. Token Economics discloses an initial allocation of 10% (for pre-deposit activity incentives, exchange activities, initial on-chain liquidity, etc.). Assuming that Stableâs final airdrop share to pre-deposits is 3%-7%, based on the pre-market price of $0.032, the corresponding return is approximately 7% to 16.9%, which means that every $10,000 deposit corresponds to $700 to $1,690.
