Musk asks a serious question: Can quantum computers crack Bitcoin?
Musk raised new questions about the long-term security of Bitcoin in the context of the rapid development of quantum computing. This article originates from an article written by bitcoinist, compiled, compiled and written by Blockchain Knight.
(Preliminary summary: Developers propose to freeze 1 million Bitcoins from Satoshi Nakamoto, 3 steps to deal with the quantum computer crisis)
(Background supplement: Quantum computers may reveal the "footprint of Satoshi Nakamoto"? Adam Back: Let the sleeping millions of Bitcoins speak)
Musk raised new questions about the long-term security of Bitcoin in the context of the rapid development of quantum computing. The Tesla and SpaceX CEO used his AI chatbot Grok to explore the possibility that the SHA-256 hash algorithm used by Bitcoin could be cracked by powerful quantum computers.
He raised this question just as IBM announced its major plans for its next-generation quantum system "Blue Jay", which is expected to achieve 2,000 global qubits by 2033.
According to Grokâs analysis, the risk of quantum computers breaking Bitcoin encryption in the next five years is extremely low, and AI estimates that the probability is close to zero.
But looking to 2035, the probability will increase slightly, but it will still be less than 10%. The information is based on expert assessments and current quantum computing capabilities.
"Based on the 2025 assessment by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and IBM and expert surveys, the probability of a quantum computer cracking SHA-256 through Grover's algorithm (which reduces the preimage search complexity to about 2^128 operations) will be close to 0% in the next 5 years and less than 10% before 2035. This requires millions of error corrections..." - Grok (@grok) 2025 August 2, 2019
Muskâs concerns are not groundless. Companies such as Google and Microsoft are developing their own quantum platforms (Willow and Majorana 1), sparking discussion about whether cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin may be vulnerable to future attacks from these ultra-powerful systems.
Currently, most quantum systems have only about 1,000 qubits, far short of the millions of error-correcting qubits scientists believe are needed to crack Bitcoinâs cryptographic defenses.
Grok added that if necessary in the future, stronger algorithms such as SHA-3 or SHA-512 can be used as alternatives.
At the same time, recent analysis by global auditing firm Deloitte shows that quantum computers may soon threaten the security of the Bitcoin blockchain, and currently about 25% of Bitcoins are at risk of being stolen by quantum attacks.
Analysts say that eventually the computing power of quantum computers may be powerful enough to crack the entire transaction process. To guard against this risk, the Bitcoin network needs to adopt post-quantum cryptography. This is an emerging but complex solution currently being explored by cryptographers around the world.
IBM's new system "Blue Jay" will have more than 1 billion gate operations, far exceeding the performance range of current computers.
This is an important move as the company strives to be at the forefront of quantum computing by the early 2030s. With industry giants such as Google and Microsoft chasing after them, competition is becoming increasingly fierce.
Muskâs concern is not motivated by academic interest. Tesla currently holds 11,500 Bitcoins, worth approximately $1.3 billion at current prices. SpaceX also holds a sizeable amount, reportedly equivalent to around $850 million in Bitcoin. Musk himself has confirmed that he holds Bitcoin in his personal portfolio.
Given the size of these positions, itâs no wonder Musk wants to stay ahead of potential threats. His tweet may seem light-hearted, but it shows that the technology community is increasingly concerned about the impact that advances in quantum technology may have on the cryptocurrency and financial fields.
