Is Bitcoin about to choose a direction? A look at analysts’ predictions for BTC prices in 2026

After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, the crypto market is still in a volatile range. Institutions and traders have different views on the market outlook. Some are optimistic about the first half of 2026, some expect short-term range fluctuations, and others think it may further decline.
(Preliminary summary: Michael Saylor calls for Bitcoin to reach one million or ten million dollars again: wait until the day when Strategy controls 5% or 7% of the total BTC supply)
(Background supplement: Bitcoin community warning: Quantum defense upgrades may take five to ten years to respond )

Contents of this article

Since the implementation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut and the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike policy, the crypto market is still in a volatile range, and the panic index has struggled to climb but is still below 30. After the ups and downs of crypto players after this year’s black swan, how do market traders and institutions view the subsequent market trends?

Wintermute Trading Strategist: Bitcoin may fluctuate in the range of $86,000 to $92,000

Wintermute Trading Strategist In an interview with CoinDesk, Jasper De Maere believes that Bitcoin could be stuck in a range between $86,000 and $92,000. Jasper cautioned that it is not advisable to over-interpret technical indicators at this time, and expected that there will be more profit-taking behavior in the next two weeks due to the impact of year-end portfolio adjustments and tax factors. "People are closing positions to take a breather...short-term rallies will soon be sold off." He expects Bitcoin to continue to trade sideways until new catalysts emerge, one of which may be a large option expiration in late December. While Jasper is not yet asserting that the market has bottomed, he said the market is starting to show signs of bottoming. "I feel like we are at the greatest pain point. In the short term, I definitely think the market is oversold."

IOSG founding partner: Optimistic about the market in the first half of 2026

IOSG founding partner Jocy posted on social media, "2025 2025 is the darkest year for the crypto market, and it is also the dawn of the institutional era. This is a fundamental change in the market structure, and most people are still using the logic of the old cycle to look at the new era. They see a paradigm shift from retail speculation to institutional allocation. Core data institutions hold 24% of the positions, and retail investors withdraw. 66%, the change of hands in the crypto market has been transferred from retail investors to institutions. Institutions continue to build positions at high levels because retail investors are selling and institutions are buying.

There is a mid-term election in November 2026. The historical rule is that policy comes first in the election year, so the investment logic should be: 2026 The first half of the year is a policy honeymoon period, and institutional allocations are optimistic about the market; the second half of 2026 will see political uncertainty and increased volatility. However, there are still risks such as Federal Reserve policy, the strength of the US dollar, the possible delay of the market structure bill, the possibility of continued selling of LTH, and the uncertainty of the mid-term election results. But the other side of the risk is opportunities. When everyone is bearish, it is often the best time to deploy.

–Short term (3-6 months): 87,000-9.5 The range of US$10,000 fluctuates, and institutions continue to build positions
– Mid-term (first half of 2026): driven by policies and institutions, target $120,000-150,000
– Long-term (second half of 2026): increased volatility, depending on election results and policy continuity

This is not the top of the cycle, but the starting point of a new cycle. 2025 marks the acceleration of the institutionalization process of the crypto market. Although BTC’s annual return is negative, ETF investors show strong HODL Resilience. On the surface, crypto is the worst, but in fact it is: the largest supply change, the strongest institutional allocation willingness, the clearest policy support, and the most extensive infrastructure improvement. Although the price fell by 5%, ETF inflows are optimistic about the market in the first half of 2026. Key highlights in 2026 include: market structure bill legislation progress, the possibility of strategic Bitcoin reserve expansion, and policy continuity after the mid-term election. The improvement of infrastructure and regulatory clarity have laid the foundation for the next round of rise. When the market structure fundamentally changes, the old valuation logic will fail and new pricing power will be rebuilt.

### Galaxy Digital Research Director: BTC is still likely to hit a new high in 2026

Galaxy Digital Research Director Alex Thorn wrote, "Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of 2027. 2026 The trend in 2026 is too chaotic and difficult to predict, but it is still possible for Bitcoin to reach a record high in 2026. Currently, the pricing given by the options market shows that by the end of June 2026, the probability of Bitcoin falling to US$70,000 or rising to US$130,000 is almost equal; and by the end of 2026, it will fall to US$50,000 or rise to US$25. The probability of 10,000 US dollars is also close. Such a wide price range reflects the high degree of uncertainty in the market about the short- and medium-term prospects.

Data analyst Murphy: On-chain data sentiment is recovering

Data analyst Murphy said that the number of addresses that changed from "holding BTC" to "complete liquidation" within 30 days surged from November 13 to 25. During the same period, BTC The price fell at the fastest speed and with the largest amplitude, and the large number of liquidation addresses also reflected the panic and pessimism of the market sentiment.

However, between December 1 and 18, BTC After repeated bottoming, the number of clearing addresses began to decrease, which was completely consistent with the bullish behavior and emotional changes shown in the futures market.

Santiment founder: Bitcoin is still likely to fall to around $75,000

Maksim Balashevich, founder of crypto market analysis agency Santiment, said that there is not enough panic on social media to confirm that the market has bottomed out, and Bitcoin is still likely to fall to around $75,000, which means that Bitcoin prices still have room to fall by about 14.77% from current levels. Balashevich explained that there are still many users who are optimistic that the downward trend will reverse in the short term, but when a true market bottom forms, this usually does not happen.